The Effect of Oil and Exchange Rates on the Money Supply using ARDL Model and causality test Toda & Yama Moto Standard study in Iraq for the period (2017-2021)

This study examines the impact of oil prices and exchange rates on the money supply in the broad sense in Iraq using monthly data from (January 2017 to December 2021) and by (60) views, and this period was chosen as it included new government decisions to reform the structural system of the Iraqi economy, most notably the high price The exchange of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar (devaluation of the Iraqi dinar), as well as fluctuations in crude oil prices due to the Covid-19 pandemic, The research problem was formulated, which refers to the question (Is there a causal relationship linking crude oil prices and the exchange rate to the money supply in the broad sense? What is the direction of that relationship?) To test the research hypothesis, the ARDL model and the causality of Toda & Yama Moto were adopted. The research concluded that there is a joint integration and a long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables of the research and the existence of a causal relationship between crude oil prices and the exchange rate with M2 during the research period. We recommend that an export base should be formed that does not depend on crude oil revenues alone , which contributes to achieving the goal of devaluing the currency The Central Bank of Iraq fixes the price of the dollar in the local markets in such a way that there is no significant difference between the price of the central bank and the price of the dollar in the local markets.