Analysis of National Rice Production Policy Using a Dynamic System Model Approach

Limited rice production capacity and increasing rice consumption make conditions of food insecurity in the form of insufficient rice stocks inevitable. Good rice management in an area will affect the availability of food to meet the population's food needs. Based on Indonesian rice production data, it can be seen that rice stocks fluctuate from year to year. This research aims to analyze the dynamics of the causal relationship of variables that influence the state of rice production and stocks in Indonesia by using a systems approach and applying dynamic system modeling techniques. In this research, a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) was created for the rice stock system based on a production sub-system which involves the relationship of 11 variables to produce a model output in the form of rice stock projections in Indonesia for the next 10 year period, namely 2024-2034. Validation of simulation results against actual data in the model using the RMSPE method shows a value of 2.88 percent (<5%) so the data can be said to be valid and accurate. The results of the model simulation based on existing conditions (scenario 0) show that rice production with the highest value occurred in 2019 amounting to 30,098,987.82 tonnes and continued to decline every year until 2038 amounting to 29,208,550.85 tonnes. The decline in production figures was caused by land conversion factors and resulted in a reduction in raw rice fields. The reduction in raw rice fields will certainly result in a decrease in rice production and a decrease in rice stocks in Indonesia in the future. Low planting intensity, namely 1.45, also results in low rice production in Indonesia. This condition can be resolved if the Indonesian Government implements effective policies with the policy option of increasing rice productivity with a minimum target of 61,649,964.08 tons/hectare (optimistic scenario 3).