Empirical Analysis of The Impact of Commercial Bank Loans on Foreign Trade – In Case of Uzbekistan

This study investigates the impact of commercial bank loans on the growth of foreign trade in Uzbekistan using a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model based on quarterly data from 2005 to 2024. The analysis considers key macroeconomic indicators, including bank loan volume, long-term interest rates, money supply, inflation, and the national currency exchange rate. The results reveal that an increase in commercial bank loans positively influences export growth, while higher long-term interest rates negatively affect exports. Additionally, growth in money supply and depreciation of the national currency support export expansion, whereas inflation shows no significant impact. The study excludes short-term loans and non-monetary gold exports due to their limited relevance to export-driven production and macroeconomic effects. Overall, the findings confirm the important role of commercial banks in promoting foreign trade and highlight the need for effective monetary and credit policies to support export performance in Uzbekistan.