Dynamic Modeling of Sustainable Development of Small Business and Entrepreneurship

Small business and entrepreneurship (SBE) have become essential drivers of economic growth and job creation globally. In Uzbekistan, SBE plays a crucial role in regional economic development, with the Kashkadarya region serving as a case study for this research. Despite its importance, a comprehensive understanding of the dynamic development of SBE, especially regarding long-term trends and forecasts, remains underexplored. This study aims to apply trend modeling techniques to analyze the sustainable development of SBE in Uzbekistan, focusing on key indicators such as  production volume, employment, investment, and fixed assets. The findings reveal that the development of SBE in the Kashkadarya region is significantly influenced by investments and the use of fixed assets, while the increase in enterprises and employment enhances its socio-economic impact. Trend models were developed to forecast future trends, indicating a substantial increase in production and employment over the next decade. This research introduces a dynamic modeling approach to the analysis of SBE sustainability, providing novel insights into forecasting regional economic growth. The study suggests that policymakers should prioritize investment incentives and infrastructure modernization to support SBE growth, ensuring long-term sustainability and regional development.