Scientific and Methodological Framework for Developing Salinity-Based Yield Risk Zone Maps for Rice Cultivation in the Syrdarya Region

Soil salinization represents one of the most critical agro-environmental constraints limiting rice productivity in the Syrdarya region. This study proposes a scientifically rigorous methodology for constructing salinity-based “yield risk zone” maps by integrating hydrogeochemical monitoring, multivariate regression modeling, and GIS-based spatial interpolation. Three key salinity indicators EC of the saturated extract (ECe), Na⁺ concentration, and groundwater depth were quantified for threshold impacts on rice yield. Yield reductions from regression were 2.1 to 2.4% with each unit increase in Na+ and nonlinear with ECe > 8 dS/m. GIS modeling established the critical marginal, moderate, high and critical risk zones, progressively detailing specific meliorative strategies. The results highlight that risk-based practices augment yield between 18–25% up to 1.5-fold profitability while saving 20–30% water usage. The framework offers an empirically derived framework for site-specific precision agriculture, sustainable land management and climate-resilient crop production in saline agroecosystems.