Modeling the Dynamics of E-Government Development: Policy Pathways for Uzbekistan’s Digital Transformation

This research examines the development of Uzbekistan’s E-Government Development Index and explores strategies for sustainable improvement using a system dynamics modeling approach. As a composite measure encompassing the online service index, telecommunication infrastructure index, and human capital index, the EGDI provides a standardized benchmark for evaluating national progress in digital governance.  In 2024, Uzbekistan was placed 63rd worldwide, markedly below Kazakhstan, which held the 24th position. To address this challenge, the study develops the first SD model of Uzbekistan’s EGDI, calibrated with historical data from 2003 to 2024, and simulates alternative scenarios for the next 10 years. The model captures interdependencies among OSI, TII, and HCI, highlighting feedback loops and time delays. Validation tests confirm strong accuracy, while scenario analysis shows that HCI is the most influential long-term variable. However, balanced progress requires parallel investment in ICT infrastructure and online services. Findings suggest that a hybrid strategy combining education, digital skills, ICT expansion, and service development can enable Uzbekistan to achieve its 2030 target of joining the global top 30 EGDI performers.