Climate Change and Agricultural Sector Output in Nigeria

This study investigated the effect of climate change on agricultural sector output in Nigeria, using time-series data spanning from 1981 to 2024. The study employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model as was proposed by Pesaran et al. Climate variables such as rainfall, carbon emissions, and forest depletion were analyzed alongside  demographic indicators like population growth and poverty and agricultural output. The results show a long-run co-integration among the variables, with rainfall and forest depletion exerting significant negative effects on agricultural output, while carbon emissions were insignificant. Poverty was found to negatively influence agricultural performance, whereas population growth showed mixed effects of insignificant in the long run but positive and significant in the short run. The findings highlight the vulnerability of Nigeria’s agriculture to climate change and demographic pressures, underscoring the need for policies that mitigate environmental degradation, reduce poverty, and strengthen agricultural resilience.