Mechanisms for Enhancing Regional Tourism Competitiveness Through Digital Technologies: an Econometric Analysis and Forecasting Model

This study investigates the mechanisms through which digital technologies enhance regional tourism competitiveness using panel data from Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan) covering the period 2015-2024. Using a fixed effects panel regression with robust standard errors, the study investigates links between digital infrastructure, e-tourism uptake and tourism competitiveness variables. Four diagnostic tests are used to assess the econometric analysis: the Hausman specification test, the Breusch–Pagan Lagrange Multiplier test, the Wooldridge test for autocorrelation, and the Modified Wald test for heteroskedasticity. Results suggest that the adoption of digital technology exerted a significant and positive influence on regional tourism competitiveness (β = 0.347, p < 0.01), with internet penetration and mobile connectivity acting as significant mediating variables. With the use of ARIMA modeling techniques, the study generates forecasts for 2025-2028, suggesting that digital tourism competitiveness across the region will continue to develop. Policy implicationshighlight coordinatedinvestment on digitizedinfrastructures and the smartdevelopment of the tourismecosystem sector.