Publication Details
Abstract
The formation of enterprises of the processing industry is a basis for sustainable socio-economic development, especially in the context of digital transformation of the economy and the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Analytical assessment of industrial dynamics, based on long-term statistical trends, has come to the fore in the context of structural reforms, growing industrial production and increasing regional disparities in Uzbekistan. While industrial modeling and forecasting is examined in previous literature, few studies systematically apply trend models for evaluating processing industry performance regionally and then using the series as basis for intra- and inter-regional medium-term forecasts based on empirical time-series data. The purpose of the study is to examine the trends in economic indicators of processing industry enterprises for 2005–2025, to identify the process development trends and forecast scenarios on the basis of trend modeling. The approach used is quantitative economical econometric methods, linear and graphical trend model, regression analysis, extrapolation of parameters of econometric relative devaluation model methods, and comparative regional assessment based on official statistical data. The results depict large regional differences, stable long term industrial production growth, and expected growth of total industrial output and per capita industrial output in forecast period 2022–2026. This research combines socio-economic trend prediction with regional industrial forecasting to create a formal quantitative foundation for the analysis of management efficiency within the processing industry. This emphasizes the need to establish efficient organizational and economic management tools designed to sustainable competitiveness of the region, to ensure effective development of regional industries, and to increase the level of strategic planning in the processing industry enterprises.