Import Dependence and the Trade Deficit in Uzbekistan: Causes, Risks, and Policy Responses

Uzbekistan’s trade openness recovered after 2020, yet the trade deficit widened through 2023 as imports expanded faster than exports. Objective: The purpose of this article is to present import dependence and the trade deficit methods of classifying, using a descriptive analysis of juga secondary indicators from UNCTADstat, the World Bank Doing Business (Trading Across Borders) dataset, and the UNTF Survey interactive database. The short time frame combines the short-run dynamics (2019–2023) and a longer-run path for the goods trade (2005–2023). Results indicate increasing trade intensity by 2023 as well as a strongly negative trade balance that leads to a reversal from a goods surplus in the mid-2000s to a large goods deficit by 2023. These results suggest that border delays and border documentary trade costs would make the economy more open to external shocks and render it more reactive in the face of external shocks. The sole timber of the paper is that the deficit reduction should concentrate on our export ability and export competitiveness and not on the clumsy tool of import suppression. The policy priorities include export diversification and value addition, facilitating digital trade that reduces documentary and border frictions and both risk-based selectivity and post-clearance verification for targeting enforcement resources.