An Econometric Analysis of Poverty Determinants Based on the Minimum Consumption Expenditure Method: Evidence from the Syrdarya Region

Reducing poverty is still a primary challenge for sustainable economic growth, particularly in developing and transition economies where regional differences present evidence-based challenges. Minimum Consumption Expenditure (MCE) Method: A More Policy-Relevant Measure of Poverty in Uzbekistan Poverty alleviation is one of the main socio-economic priorities for further improving living conditions in Uzbekistan. Although regional analysis is very important, there is still limited empirical research regarding poverty determinants at the micro level for the Syrdarya region with applications of econometric techniques based on MCE. The structure of the study presented can be based on the following: In this article, we model the number of poor population in Syrdarya region as a function of higher education graduates, general education institutions, operating enterprises and youth population aged 16–30 between years of 2010–2024. Here, the log–log regression model shows a high explanatory power (R² = 0.8695) and overall statistical significance (Prob > F = 0.0002). The findings also indicate a statistically significant negative relationship between the number of operating enterprises and poverty, whereas education related variables and youth population show overwhelming poverty alleviating effects. Projections for 2025–2028 suggest an anticipated reduction in poverty of some 30 percent. The authors consolidate the MCE-based poverty measure into a logarithmic econometric framework to address regions-level elasticity impacts. Enterprise development, improving education and enhancing youth competitiveness are important policy messages for sustained poverty reduction and inclusive growth.