Analysis of the Efficiency of Recycling Industry Enterprises in the Digital Economy Using Trend and Regression Models

The growth of processing industry enterprises is a key element of sustainable socio-economic development, especially in the context of the digital economy, were factors of long-term sustainable development are based on competitiveness, productivity and value-added production. These years of large-scale reforms in Uzbekistan to improve investment climate, to develop private sector, to accelerate technology modernization and to boost the export potential of the country have created a favorable environment for industrial development, confirmed by the dynamics of growth in volumes and export of industrial products and output indicators at regional level. While modeling and forecasting of socio-economic and industrial processes are well-researched (theoretical and empirical), there is still a significant gap in context-specific econometric evaluation of processing industry enterprises in conditions of post-covid recovery and digital transform possibilities. Abstract This study aims to test the possibility of processing industry enterprises development prediction based on the trend and trend regression models, long-term growth patterns for processing industry identification and forecasting scenarios of growth dynamics construction on the state vulnerability data for 2005–2025 period using official statistical data. The results prove that the industrial production shift is approximately uniform, that technological modernization has an increasing effect on the production levels, and that there will be a significant increase in the total and per capita industrial production in the Kashkadarya region for the years 2026–2031 This study combines trend extrapolation, regression analysis and cross-regional comparisons in a consistent quantitative approach for the digital economy setting. The results highlight the importance and need for timely technological updating and the reconstruction of management mechanisms, the establishment of human capital development levels with fair competition, increase in export growth and the most efficient use of resources to facilitate sustainable development of induatri, and national economy – GDP growth.