Scenarios of Development of the Banking System of Uzbekistan Until 2030: Forecasting Based on Cagr Models

This article provides a comprehensive scientific and empirical analysis of the impact of digital transformation on financial efficiency in the banking system of Uzbekistan, with projections for the period up to 2030. A comparative analysis with Central Asian banking sectors reveals that Uzbekistan leads the region in terms of Return on Assets (ROA — 2.7%) and capital adequacy (21.2%), while also recording the lowest non-performing loan ratio (NPL — 2.9%). Under the optimistic scenario, total banking assets are projected to reach 1,725 trillion soums by 2030, with digital transactions accounting for 97% of all operations and net profit reaching 50.5 trillion soums. The findings demonstrate that the integration of artificial intelligence, machine learning, and fintech solutions can reduce operational costs by up to 9.1%, increase lending speed by 14.2%, and significantly broaden the geographic coverage of banking services, thereby accelerating the integration of Uzbekistan’s banking sector into global financial markets.