Publication Details
Abstract
The formation of grain processing enterprises serves as a foundation for sustainable socio-economic development, particularly amid the digital transformation of the economy and recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Analytical approaches to understanding industrial dynamics using long-run statistical data have been popularized in recent years around structural reforms, growth of grain processing output, and growing regional inequalities in Uzbekistan. Industrial modelling and forecasting has been covered in the literature but few studies systematically apply three trend models to firstly assess grain processing performance at the regional level and then use these series for intra- and inter-regional medium-term forecasts based on hard time-series data. The aim of the study is to analyze trends in economic indicators of grain processing enterprises for 2005–2025, reveal development patterns under the influence of smart production of Industry 5.0 and forecast scenarios by means of trend modeling. The methodology includes quantitative econometric methods, linear and graphical trend models, regression analysis, extrapolation of econometric parameters, and comparative regional assessment based on official statistics data. But the findings point to major differences between regions, highlight that the long-term trend in volume growth for grain processing remains stable, and demonstrate that 15–35% additional economic and operational productivity will be added in the forecast years 2022–2026, particularly through Industry 5.0 technologies on top of total processing volume growth and per capita processing output growth. It underscores the necessity of efficient organizational-economic tools to enhance regional competitiveness, ensure sustainable industry development, and elevate strategic planning in grain processing enterprises.