Mechanisms for Developing Domestic Tourism in Bukhara Region, Uzbekistan: An Econometric Analysis and Strategic Framework

This article examines the factors shaping domestic tourism growth in Bukhara Region — a territory that stands out not only within Uzbekistan but across the broader Central Asian landscape in terms of its historical depth and cultural heritage. This study is based on official statistical data (2016–2023) for domestic tourists’ arrivals and employs econometric modelling to identify the key determinants of fluctuations in arrivals from domestic tourists. A log-linear regression, R = 0.9858; R² = 0.972; approximation error = 0.76% was performed and validated. The five-year forecast prepared on this basis predicted 4.9 million domestic visitors at the end of the forecast period of 2025–2029. Alongside these quantitative findings, the paper puts forward three substantive contributions of an applied and theoretical character: first, the author proposes a refined conceptual definition of 'domestic tourism' as an economic category; second, a new recreational destination concept — 'Susanbil in the Desert' — is outlined for Kagan District; and third, the development and mass printing of the 'Official Tourist Map of Bukhara' is reported. The Discussion section draws on comparative material from Japan, Kazakhstan, Russia and the United States to situate Bukhara Region's trajectory within a global frame of reference. The paper closes with concrete policy recommendations addressed to regional tourism administrators, academic researchers, and practitioners in the field.