Problems of Ensuring Economic Sustainability in The Agricultural Sector Based on Yield Risk Management

The article analyzes the theoretical and practical aspects of yield risk management in agriculture, as well as its role in ensuring the economic sustainability of agrarian production. Using the example of Namangan region, the dynamics of cotton yield for the period  were examined through variation indicators, the coefficient of variation (CV), quantile analysis (Q10), and probabilistic assessment methods (Pr(Y<30)). A district-level risk passport was developed, and the average yield losses and their economic equivalents were calculated. The study revealed that rising temperatures and the increasing frequency of drought years have led to a higher probability of yield declines below 30 centners per hectare, resulting in annual economic losses of 20–25 million USD across the region. The article substantiates organizational and economic measures aimed at reducing yield risks.