Analysis of Interacting Factors in Medium-Term Forecasting and Planning of Government Budget Revenues

This dissertation develops and substantiates an improved methodological framework for medium-term forecasting and planning of state budget revenues. The study combines institutional analysis with econometric and scenario-based approaches to reduce forecast uncertainty, improve fiscal sustainability, and strengthen evidence-based budgeting. Using official macroeconomic, tax-base, and regional indicators, the research evaluates key drivers of revenue dynamics and proposes practical mechanisms for integrating data systems into forecasting workflows. The findings support policy recommendations to enhance forecast accuracy, transparency, and performance-oriented budgeting in Uzbekistan.