Assessment of the Impact of the Energy System on the Short-Term and Long-Term Prospects of the Industrial Sector of Uzbekistan Using the Ardl Model

This study aims to assess the impact of the energy system on determining the short-term and long-term prospects for the development of Uzbekistan's industrial sector. In the empirical analysis, the impact of energy production and consumption, electricity capacity, and fuel and energy resources on industrial value added and production volume is studied based on data from the State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics and the Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Uzbekistan. The study uses the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model, which determines short-term dynamic dependencies and long-term equilibrium relationships between variables. The results show that energy supply stability and infrastructure modernization have a positive impact on industrial growth in the long term, while changes in energy factors have a significant impact on production volumes in the short term. The findings of the study are of practical importance for the formulation of industrial and energy policies.