Factors Affecting Economic Growth in Uzbekistan: Analysis Based on OLS and VAR Models for 2000–2023

This study examines the key macroeconomic determinants of real GDP growth in Uzbekistan over the period 2000–2023 using two complementary econometric approaches: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) multiple regression and a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model. The analysis incorporates investment, inflation, export orientation, government expenditure, and a COVID-19 structural break dummy as explanatory variables. The OLS estimation reveals that export orientation is the strongest positive driver of economic growth, while inflation exerts a significant negative effect. Investment shows diminishing returns over the sample horizon, consistent with neoclassical growth theory. The COVID-19 pandemic is identified as the largest single structural shock of the period. The VAR model captures the dynamic interdependencies among growth, investment and exports, showing that investment is highly persistent while Granger causality tests indicate that growth relationships in Uzbekistan operate through long-run structural channels rather than short-run predictive dynamics. The findings provide evidence-based policy recommendations for sustaining economic growth within the New Uzbekistan 2030 development agenda.