Improving Green Tax Mechanisms in Uzbekistan: an Integrated Model of Carbon Taxation and Ecological Incentives

This study examines the current state of green tax mechanisms in Uzbekistan and develops an integrated model combining carbon taxation and ecological investment incentives. Employing a regression-based estimation framework supplemented by structured cross-country comparative analysis, the research draws on fiscal and environmental data covering the period 2018–2024. The findings indicate that while the share of environmental taxes in GDP has risen from 0.31% to 0.98%, this level remains significantly below the OECD average of 2.4%. The phased introduction of a carbon tax is estimated to reduce CO₂ emissions by 15–25% and generate additional fiscal revenues of 8,400–14,000 billion soums annually. Furthermore, the expansion of tax incentives targeting renewable energy investment is identified as a realistic pathway to raising the green investment share to 12% of GDP by 2030. The paper proposes a five-instrument integrated green fiscal model tailored to Uzbekistan's institutional and economic context.