Spatial Spillovers and Sub-Regional Convergence in Transition Economies: A Conceptual Framework for Inclusive Territorial Development in Central Asia

This paper develops a conceptual framework for understanding the dynamics of sub-regional convergence in transition economies, with particular reference to the spatial spillover mechanisms through which inter-district inequalities can be productively narrowed. While the classical convergence literature initiated by Barro and Sala-i-Martin has produced a substantial body of empirical evidence on national and inter-regional convergence dynamics, the sub-regional (inter-district) level at which most policy interventions are actually implemented in transition economies remains comparatively under-theorized. Building on a structured review of forty-three peer-reviewed sources indexed in Web of Science and Scopus, the analysis integrates four streams of scholarship that have remained largely separate: classical convergence theory, the new economic geography of Krugman and Fujita, the spatial econometrics tradition associated with Anselin and LeSage, and the more recent literature on place-based policy and territorial cohesion. The paper proposes a four-component framework—infrastructure-led connectivity, productive specialization with inter-district complementarity, human-capital deepening, and institutional coordination—through which transition-economy sub-regions can move from divergent to convergent development trajectories. The framework is illustrated through an empirical vignette drawn from the Bukhara region of Uzbekistan, where rapid post-2017 economic liberalization has accelerated the formation of measurable sub-regional development asymmetries. The findings carry implications for regional-economics scholarship, territorial development policy, and the international literature on emerging-market spatial inequality, and they identify several directions for future empirical research.