The Nexus Between Agricultural Water Productivity and CO₂ Emissions in River Basin Countries of Central Asia: The Role of Governance

This study analyzes the relationship between water productivity and CO2 emissions of Agriculture Amudarya and Sirdarya river basin depending countries of Central Asia over the period 1996–2024. An important contribution of this study is to assess the role of governance in water productivity. The Fixed-effects regression with Driscoll–Kraay heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent standard errors are used for panel data. The empirical results show that water productivity has a significant negative impact on agricultural CO2 emissions. The estimates show that a one-unit increase in water productivity leads to approximately 0.08–0.21 unit decrease in agricultural CO2 emissions. We also find that water productivity decreases agricultural CO2 emissions faster in countries with higher rule of law, regulatory quality, government effectiveness, and voice and accountability.