Publication Details
Abstract
This article empirically assesses the impact of institutional fragmentation in social protection governance on regional pension outcomes in Uzbekistan over 2010–2024. Fragmentation refers to the dispersed administration of social services across multiple ministries — a structural problem officially acknowledged by President Mirziyoyev on May 30, 2023, at the 11th Congress of the UzLiDeP party, who stated: "In Uzbekistan currently social services are provided in six different ministries. They will be streamlined to a newly formed agency to ensure a better coordination." Official panel data from the Statistical Agency of Uzbekistan covering 15 regions (2010–2024, N=240) are combined with the ILO/UNICEF/World Bank CODI diagnostic report (2020) and official NASP establishment documents. The coefficient of variation (CoV) of beneficiary coverage serves as a proxy fragmentation index. This is the first quantitative study linking social protection institutional fragmentation to regional pension inequality in Uzbekistan. The 1.65x pension gap between Tashkent city (2,084.1 thousand soums, 2024) and Namangan region (1,263.2 thousand soums) is attributed to governance structure rather than economic factors alone. The CoV rose from 12.4% (2010) to 16.1% (2022). The 2023 NASP reform — unifying social services from six ministries into one agency — is a necessary institutional step; however, 2024 data show fragmentation effects have not yet been fully eliminated.