Assessing the Impact of Targeted Agricultural Credit on Dehkan Farms and Household Plot Owners: Panel Evidence from Uzbekistan

This study evaluates the effectiveness of targeted credit allocated to dehkan farms and household plot owners and provides forecasts of key indicators up to 2029 using econometric models. The research is based on panel data covering 15 districts of the Kashkadarya region over the period 2018–2023. In the empirical analysis, the factors influencing crop production (Y1), livestock production (Y2), and employment (Y3) were assessed using Fixed Effects (FE) and Random Effects (RE) models. The statistical adequacy of the models was tested using the Hausman and Breusch–Pagan tests. The results indicate that the volume of targeted credit is the most significant determinant. A 1% increase in credit volume leads to an average increase of 0.61% in crop and livestock production, and a 0.69% increase in employment. According to the forecast results, by 2029, crop production in the Kashkadarya region is expected to increase by 36.5%, livestock production by 38.5%, and employment by 33.5%. The findings of the study contribute to improving the effectiveness of financial support policies in the agricultural sector.