Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Inflation and Poverty Rates in Iraq: An Econometric Analysis Using the NARDL Model

The research aims to determine the magnitude of the asymmetric effects of global oil price shocks on the variables of inflation and poverty rates in Iraq for the period (2004-2024). To achieve the research objective and verify its hypothesis , the quantitative method was used in employing the econometric aspect of the Nonlinear Distributed Autoregression Lag ( NARDL ) model to study the correlation between positive and negative shocks and to analyze the effect of the responses of macroeconomic variables, and between the research found a non-linear counteraction relationship, where positive shocks to oil prices raise the inflation rate by (0.89%) , while negative shocks only reduce it by (0.65%). Conversely, regarding poverty, the research found that the impact of negative shocks (price decreases) leads to a deeper and faster increase in poverty by (0.56%) compared to the impact of positive shocks , which contribute to... Its decrease by (0.45) percentages and the research recommends the necessity of adopting strict financial rules and separating social spending from the fluctuations of oil rent through sovereign investment funds.