Targeted Training of Middle-Skilled Workers for Formal Employment Abroad: An Institutional Model for Uzbekistan

This study develops and provides exploratory empirical support for an institutional model that converts vocational preparation into formal overseas employment for middle-skilled workers from Uzbekistan. Middle-skilled workers are operationally defined as persons prepared through upper-secondary or post-secondary non-tertiary vocational programs for technical, craft, production, transport, service, and health-support occupations. The study combines an institutional-economic analysis for 2018-2025 with a log-log time-series model for 2015-2025. The estimated stock of Uzbek labor migrants was volatile, ranging from 2.4 million in 2018 to 1.3 million in 2024 before recovering to 1.8 million in 2025. During 2021-2025, 13 specialized construction training centers trained 25,647 participants; 53.3% obtained employment and 17.3% were placed abroad through organized channels. The econometric outcome is an analytical estimate of total migrant stock rather than a verified count of formal contracts; consequently, the estimates are interpreted as contextual associations. Prais-Winsten estimation yielded R-squared=0.948 and identified international labor agreements as the strongest positive institutional correlate (elasticity=1.033, P=0.038). The proposed demand-to-contract model links quarterly demand monitoring, targeted public orders, integrated vocational and language training, dual practice, independent assessment, recognized certification, verified contracting, and post-placement monitoring. The model supports shifting public financing from enrollment targets toward certification, occupation-matched placement, six-month retention, and worker-protection outcomes.