Development of a Methodology for Econometric Modeling of The Effective use of Export Potential

Effective utilization of export potential is critical for sustaining economic growth, regional competitiveness, and foreign economic stability. In Uzbekistan's Khorezm region, structural imbalances and a lack of systematic export-import policy hinder optimal use of export potential, necessitating robust assessment frameworks. Despite global efforts in econometric evaluation of foreign economic activity, methodological tools for analyzing export potential at the regional level—particularly for small open economies—remain underdeveloped. This study aims to develop a methodology for econometric modeling of the effective use of export potential, focusing on calculating efficiency indicators, evaluating spatial economic security, and proposing predictive tools for export policy optimization. Using statistical data from 2020–2024, the research applied correlation-regression analysis and spatial modeling techniques, revealing that declining export volumes and policy inefficiencies are limiting Khorezm’s growth. A new model was formulated using weighted Euclidean distance and a "Potential Field" framework to comprehensively assess regional export capacities. The study advances the field by integrating quantitative econometric tools and spatial analysis to assess export efficiency, offering a replicable model for regional analysis. The proposed methodology provides policymakers with actionable insights for enhancing regional export performance and aligning foreign economic strategies with national priorities. It also contributes to establishing critical thresholds for trade security and sustainability, thus offering a scientifically grounded basis for informed decision-making in regional economic planning.