Analysis of Foreign Trade Flows and Regional Economic Stability: Evidence From The Khorezm Region

This paper analyses the impact of foreign trade flows on regional economic stability in the Khorezm region with quarterly data from 2010 to 2024. Utilizing a multivariate linear regression with the log adjusted export, import and GRP as output the study video records on how foreign trade dynamics influence regional economic performance. The empirical results show importing has a significant positive impact on regional product, indicating that the region heavily depends on intermediate goods and capital goods imported to promote production and technology upgrading. On the other hand, exports exhibit negative short-term elasticity; this suggests structural constraints supported by raw materials dominance in export mix and vulnerability toward international price theatre. The model is statistically sound according to the diagnostic tests: it does not indicate autocorrelation, heteroskedasticy or multicollinearity. The strong correlation observed between the actual and predicted GRP values reconfirms the validity of the model. In general, the study demonstrates the importance of structural or trade composition in determining the regional economic stability and stresses that export diversification and increased value added at least also are requirements to achieve sustainable long-term development in Khorezm.