Statistical Assessment and Dynamics of the Shadow Economy in Uzbekistan: Trends, Challenges, and Policy Measures

The shadow economy represents a significant component of the economic landscape in many developing countries, including Uzbekistan. This study provides a comprehensive statistical assessment of the informal and shadow sectors in Uzbekistan, based on national data, international methodological frameworks, and the results of sample surveys conducted between 2017 and 2023. The paper outlines direct and indirect methods of measuring unregistered economic activity, including the MIMIC model, household expenditure analysis, and administrative data integration. Special attention is paid to the impact of unobserved economic activity on GDP estimates, with new statistical calculations indicating a substantial upward revision of GDP figures. The study also reviews government measures aimed at reducing the shadow economy, including recent presidential decrees and collaboration with the IMF and World Bank. Findings show a persistent presence of informal and shadow activity, especially in the construction and services sectors, underscoring the need for continued methodological refinement and policy action