Evaluating The Impact of Services Exports on Uzbekistan’s Economic Growth: A Time-Series Econometric Analysis (2010–2024)

This study empirically investigates the impact of services exports on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Uzbekistan using time-series data from 2010 to 2024. The research employs a dual-stage econometric approach, comparing static log-log models with first-difference models to address non-stationarity and autocorrelation. The OLS initial results indicated a strong long term elasticity of 1.586 (p < 0.001) which indicated that services export is a strong structural anchor to the economy. Nevertheless, diagnostic tests showed that there is severe positive autocorrelation (DW = 0.437). With the first-difference transformation, the Durbin-Watson value has increased to 1.2598, but the short-term effect of services export has decreased (0.062) and it was not significant anymore. These results confirm the assumption that, though services, at 43.9 per cent of GDP, are essential to long-term prosperity, their short-run dynamics of growth are now overwhelmed by the commodity dependence. The research will conclude that further digitalization is needed to entrench services as a major cause of annual economic changes.