Modular Assessment of Net Room-Nights for Economic Effectiveness Analysis of MICE Events in Uzbekistan

Economic assessment of the MICE segment in Uzbekistan is complicated by the fact that direct spending by business visitors is often estimated without accounting for binding infrastructure constraints, primarily the shortage of high-quality accommodation capacity, and without an explicit separation between the gross effect and the net increment for the host territory. This paper proposes a calibratable modular model that combines delegate expenditure estimation aligned with the tourism satellite account with an accommodation capacity-constraint filter and an operationalization of displacement via the net room-nights metric. The model separates hotel revenue from other categories, introduces a scaling parameter that reduces non-accommodation spending under accommodation scarcity, and incorporates local capture interpreted as the inverse of leakage. An empirical demonstration compares Tashkent and Samarkand as two MICE locations with different accommodation structures. The results indicate that, under high segment-level scarcity, efficiency per participant-day may decrease despite higher gross spending, and that the choice of the relevant accommodation segment can materially change estimated value added. The practical implication is the need to shift from gross indicators to KPIs normalized by infrastructure-feasible volumes and to move planning emphasis from simply expanding the event calendar to managing effective capacity.