Evaluation of the Social Potential of the Districts of Kashkadarya Region Based on Integral Indices and Cluster Analysis

The paper assesses the social availability presented by the integral index method with cluster analysis regarding the social potential of the districts of Kashkadarya region. Perceived social potential is a multidimensional trait indicating social security, economic well being and provision of infrastructure that together form human development chances especially of childhood social potential. The knowledge gap for region level empirical assessments by quantitative methods in social potential in Uzbekistan have been targeted.
It employs Z standardization of socio-economic indicators, composite indices related to economic development, security and infrastructure provisioning, and multivariate clustering using the Expectation Maximization algorithm. Districts are being classified based on normalized indicators obtained from the official statistical data, which means that districts are compared based only on normalized indicators due to the fact that those indicators relate to structural characteristics of the territory, which are not very comparable.
These findings show the substantial differences in social potential across regions. These clusters stretch from the most economically and infrastructurally developed districts to those underperforming on all dimensions. The results show that economic growth per se does not provide the base for high social potential: security and infrastructure factors are decisive for regional development.
Findings highlight the need for differentiated regional social policies. This suggests that there are important policy implications such as favouring investments in infrastructure and social security at the level of low potential clusters and changing economic indicators, as they are currently having no meaning in describing how household well being is. Such tool created with the help of proposed approach provides a solid analytical foundation for enabling regional diagnostics and can be used to implement it for other regions of Uzbekistan, further allowing for factual territorial development planning.