Assessment of Groundwater Recharge Under Changing Climatic Conditions in Alguwair Area, Northern Iraq

Water resources in the Alguwair region of Northern Iraq are largely dependent on groundwater, making effective management critical, especially under changing climate conditions. This study applied the SWAT model to estimate groundwater recharge and assess its sensitivity to climate variability. The model was calibrated and validated using hydrological data, and sensitivity analysis identified key recharge parameters. Results showed that shallow unconfined aquifers receive an average annual recharge of 350 mm, while deep confined aquifers receive 500 mm, influenced by hydrogeological characteristics and aquifer connections. Recharge contributed 34.4%-37.9% of total rainfall from 2016-2023, suggesting watershed characteristics, rather than rainfall variability, drive recharge patterns. These findings highlight the SWAT model’s utility in predicting sustainable groundwater management and could inform water resource policies for the region.