Publication Details
Abstract
The accelerating diffusion of artificial intelligence (AI) and automation technologies across global production systems has fundamentally reconfigured the architecture of labour markets, yet the distributional consequences of this transformation remain disproportionately underexplored in developing-economy contexts. While mainstream economic discourse has concentrated on net employment effects in high-income countries, a more insidious and structurally significant phenomenon—hidden unemployment—has emerged as a defining feature of labour market adjustment in economies characterised by informality, institutional fragility, and persistent skills deficits. This study examines how AI-driven technological displacement generates forms of labour market exclusion that conventional unemployment metrics systematically fail to capture, with particular attention to Nigeria, India, Indonesia, and Uzbekistan as analytically distinct but comparatively instructive cases. Drawing upon a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature published between 2021 and 2026, alongside secondary analysis of labour force surveys, International Labour Organization (ILO) reports, World Bank employment datasets, and policy documentation from relevant national ministries, this paper constructs an analytical framework integrating Skill-Biased Technological Change theory, structural unemployment theory, and labour market segmentation perspectives. The findings reveal that AI-induced displacement concentrates overwhelmingly in routine-intensive occupations and disproportionately affects low-skilled workers, women, and youth in developing economies, generating expanded pools of discouraged workers, involuntary part-time labourers, and those engaged in subsistence informal activities—all categories that standard unemployment rates render invisible. The paper further demonstrates that existing statistical methodologies adopted by most developing-country labour ministries are institutionally unprepared to measure this emergent form of technological joblessness. Policy recommendations address adaptive education systems, targeted reskilling programmes, AI governance frameworks, and labour market institutional reforms calibrated to the structural realities of lower-middle-income economies.