Investment and Innovation Efficiency in the Industrial Sector of Uzbekistan: Model Comparison and Robust Analysis

This article examines the impact of growth factors in Uzbekistan’s industrial sector on fixed capital investments and innovation expenditures using a multi-model econometric approach. The methodological framework of the study incorporates Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), robust regression (resistant to outliers), and polynomial regression models that account for non-linear relationships, alongside a robustness check of the results. Statistical analysis of data from 2010 to 2024 reveals that, across all models, the multiplicative effect of innovation expenditures on industrial output is, on average, twice as high as the effect of investments. Robust regression results confirmed the high reliability of the coefficients by minimizing standard errors. The article concludes by highlighting the strategic role of innovation costs in accelerating industrial growth and the qualitative modernization of investment policy.