Publication Details
Abstract
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, constituted a seismic shock to the international system, marking the definitive end of the post-Cold War era in Europe. This article argues that the invasion was not merely a tactical escalation of the conflict that began in 2014, but a strategic rupture driven by a confluence of three factors: Russia's perception of a closing window of opportunity to reassert its great power status and halt NATO expansion; an ideational and deeply personalized imperial project within the Kremlin that denies Ukraine's sovereign legitimacy; and a profound intelligence failure regarding Ukrainian national resilience and military capacity. Analyzing the events leading up to and during the first nine months of the war, this paper contends that the conflict represents a clash between a 19th-century sphere-of-influence worldview and a 21st-century conception of national self-determination. The initial phase of the war shattered pre-war assumptions, revealing not only the systemic weaknesses of Russia's military and political decision-making apparatus but also the remarkable strength of Ukraine's state-society synergy, which has been forged and consolidated since 2014. The war, therefore, is more than a territorial dispute; it is a defining struggle over the foundational norms of sovereignty and the future architecture of European security.