Publication Details
Abstract
This study examines the quantitative relationship between inflation and nominal wages in Uzbekistan over the period 2010–2024, using a three-factor Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) multiple regression framework. The dependent variable is the average monthly nominal wage (thousand UZS), and the three independent variables are the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate (X₁), nominal Gross Domestic Product (X₂, billion UZS), and the official USD/UZS annual average exchange rate (X₃). Data are sourced from the State Statistics Committee of Uzbekistan and the Central Bank of Uzbekistan. The estimated model achieves an exceptionally high goodness of fit (R² = 0.9996), the F-criterion confirms overall significance (F = 9,363.44 >> Fₘᵉⁿ = 3.587), and the mean approximation error stands at 1.90% — well below the 10% acceptability threshold. The CPI inflation rate coefficient is positive and borderline significant (t = 2.122 ≈ tₘᵉⁿ = 2.201), confirming a wage-inflation indexation mechanism, while GDP exerts a dominant and highly significant effect on wage growth. The findings offer evidence-based insights for wage and monetary policy design in Uzbekistan.