Foreign Trade Activity of Uzbekistan: Forecasting Based on the ARIMA Model

The article presents a study on forecasting the export volume of Uzbekistan using ARIMA models. The analysis is based on monthly data for the period 2015-2024 and shows that the ARIMA (1.1.1) model provides the best fit. The forecast indicates moderate export growth in 2025 accompanied by increasing uncertainty. The results confirm the applicability of ARIMA for short-term analysis and export policy planning, while also highlighting the importance of external economic factors in shaping export trends.